Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.
Polling Trends and Election Dynamics
The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.
Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.
Major Parties and Projections
At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.
Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.
Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.
Voting Process and Political Division
In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.
This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.
Government Formation
The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.
Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.
Election Day Details
Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.
Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.
