A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
