Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Shift of Stance and Closed Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document & Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018
This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger and A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
